Passenger figures unchanged on London area routes

The UK CAA have just released the provisional traffic figures for July 2008. Analyzing the year to date figures for 2008 shows no change over the same period in 2007 when considering traffic from the three state airports to the four London area airports.Scheduled passenger figures for both periods were 3.37m. Within the figures though there have been some substantial shifts. During the period January to July 2007, traffic on the SNN-LHR route amounted to just short of 196,000. In the first seven months of 2008 traffic on BEL-LHR realized 139,000 which represents a 29% drop in passenger numbers for Aer Lingus on these four LHR slots. SNN-LGW shows a 63% increase in numbers YoY with SNN-STN showing an 18% growth YoY. In both cases ( and in the case of SNN-LTN which was reinstated in January 2008 ), Ryanair have increased frequency on the routes by way of compensation for loss of the Aer Lingus LHR slots so it is difficult to estimate if the growth in passenger numbers is commensurate with the growth in capacity. Overall passenger numbers from Shannon to the four London area airports shows an 18% drop YoY amounting to 72,500. Cork has been the beneficiary to some extent of the loss of Shannon's slots. Traffic on the CRK-LHR route has grown by a substantial 18% or almost 37,500 passengers which demonstrates that this route has for some been the preferred alternative.Lack of extra LHR-CRK slots has forced Aer Lingus to increase capacity on the route by up sizing equipment from A320 to A321. Due to mix it is difficult to ascertain if load factor is matching growth in passenger numbers. Traffic on the CRK-STN and CRK-LGW routes show -6% and -2% growth respectively YoY YTD 2008 over 2007. Overall passenger numbers from Cork to the three London area airports shows 6% growth YoY amounting to 30,500 passengers. At Dublin, the duopoly enjoyed by Aer Lingus and BMI on the DUB-LHR route shows a significant 6% reduction in passenger numbers amounting to over 63,000. The reduction in DUB-LHR numbers seems to have gone the way of Gatwick which has seen the numbers on the Dublin route increase by a massive 27% to over 623,000, with the magic 100,000 barrier being broken in July. Traffic on the DUB-STN route shows a 5% reduction at 545,000 and DUB-LTN shows modest 3% growth to 211,000. Consolidated numbers from Dublin to the 4 London area airports shows 2% growth YoY YTD at 2.47m